By Taiwo Ismael
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration may have succeeded in momentarily reducing food prices, but it has done so through economic manipulation rather than genuine reform. The recent decision to grant import waivers on essential food items such as rice, maize, wheat, and vegetable oil has flooded the Nigerian market with imported products, creating an artificial surplus that is now driving down prices.
On the surface, this appears to be a win for consumers as food prices continue to drop and markets seem active again. But beneath that temporary relief lies a deeper structural crisis that the government seems unwilling to confront. The real reasons food prices have soared in Nigeria are the unstable exchange rate and the soaring cost of transportation driven by fuel subsidy removal and poor infrastructure. Until these two fundamental issues are addressed, any attempt to stabilize food prices through importation will only provide temporary relief while inflicting long-term damage on the economy.
Local farmers, who have already battled rising production costs and poor access to credit, are now being forced to sell their produce at a loss because imported food has become cheaper. Many of these farmers took loans or invested their savings in anticipation of profitable harvests, only to watch their crops rot unsold as markets are flooded with cheaper foreign goods. This policy, therefore, punishes the very people Nigeria should be empowering to ensure food security and rural development.
Before the floating of the naira in mid-2023, the average cost of a 50kg bag of rice hovered between ₦25,000 and ₦30,000, while maize sold for about ₦23,000 per bag. However, after the exchange rate was unified and the naira lost nearly 50% of its value, these same commodities skyrocketed to between ₦70,000 and ₦90,000 in many parts of the country. Based on the prevailing exchange rate, the real market value of these food items should be even higher, yet the government’s import waivers have artificially suppressed prices. Nigerians are, therefore, buying “cheap” imported food at the expense of local farmers who can no longer recover their production costs. Ironically, the prices of farm inputs such as fertilizer, insecticides, and transportation remain as high as ever.
The question then arises: what exactly is crashing food prices when the cost of production has not declined? The answer is clear, the artificial flooding of the market with imports, which creates the illusion of price relief while leaving the structural causes of high food prices untouched.
The removal of fuel subsidy has further deepened the crisis. With petrol prices rising from ₦185 per litre to over ₦650, the cost of transporting agricultural produce from rural areas to urban markets has more than tripled. What used to cost about ₦5,000 now takes ₦15,000 or more, directly feeding into food inflation. Importation cannot solve this logistical burden; only deliberate investment in rural infrastructure, energy, road networks, and security can. Yet, government response in these critical areas has been painfully slow.
Economic data further expose the superficial nature of this policy. Following the rebasing of inflation figures in early 2025, Nigeria’s official inflation rate reportedly stands at 24.48%, while food inflation is pegged at around 26.08%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, these figures hardly reflect reality. Many households report that actual price increases are far higher, implying that the rebasing exercise merely masked the true extent of hardship. Independent estimates including those from the IMF suggest that Nigeria’s real inflation rate is closer to 31–34%, driven by currency depreciation, rising energy costs, and heavy import dependence.
Equally troubling is Nigeria’s swelling food import bill. According to statistics, the country’s food import expenditure surged to ₦1.18 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, up from ₦893 billion during the same period in 2024, a 33% year-on-year increase. In total, Nigeria now spends over US$10 billion annually importing rice, wheat, sugar, and fish, the commodities it once produced in abundance. The irony is glaring: a nation blessed with vast arable land and a youthful population has become one of Africa’s largest importers of food under a government that preaches self-sufficiency.
These numbers prove one point, Nigeria cannot import its way out of hunger. Every imported bag of rice or maize chips away at the future of local agriculture and discourages the next generation from farming. Instead of relying on waivers to create the illusion of price stability, the government should focus on addressing exchange-rate volatility that makes production expensive, improving rural roads to reduce transportation costs, and investing in mechanization, irrigation, and agro-processing to boost productivity.
If this policy direction continues, Nigerians may enjoy a brief moment of cheaper food, but it will come at the expense of national self-reliance and food security. The Tinubu administration must realize that true economic reform cannot be achieved through shortcuts but through consistent, homegrown solutions that protect both consumers and producers. By tackling the core problems such as currency instability, transport inefficiency, and production deficits, Nigeria can build an economy where food is affordable not because it’s imported, but because it’s proudly produced at home.
Taiwo Ismael, MNIM
Energy Economist and Public Affairs Analyst
taheewo2004@gmail.com
