The recent impeachment of Rt. Hon. Mudashiru Obasa, Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, has sparked significant debate across the political landscape of Nigeria. While emotions run high, the core of this issue lies not in the personalities involved but in the political calculus that defines the actions of key stakeholders. As a Sustainability Consultant from Ibadan North Constituency, I have observed with keen interest how political dynamics, especially in Lagos, are shaped by both numbers and strategic alliances.
At the heart of this impeachment saga is Obasa’s grassroots support in Lagos, which cannot be easily dismissed. His political influence is especially strong in Agege, where his popularity among the people has remained steadfast over the years. In the 2023 Presidential Elections, Agege was one of the significant LGA winners for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, delivering a strong margin for the APC. With 29,568 votes for APC, Obasa’s constituency clearly showcased its unwavering support for him. His political base in these areas cannot be ignored by those looking to maintain power within Lagos.
What many forget, however, is that Meranda, the new Speaker, only rose to prominence after the impeachment event. Her visibility is closely tied to the controversy surrounding the impeachment, leaving many questioning her depth of political influence outside this specific context. This contrast underscores how Obasa’s grassroots base presents a unique challenge to the APC leadership. While Meranda’s new position represents a shift in leadership, it’s clear that the political relevance of Obasa’s support in Agege and other strongholds remains a key factor that cannot be dismissed.
While I may not endorse all of Obasa’s actions, it is undeniable that his political leverage plays a central role in the current dynamics. If Obasa were to return as Speaker, it would not be because of any personal grievance or injustice meted to him, but rather as a political expediency to maintain stability within the APC in Lagos. Politics, particularly in a complex and diverse state like Lagos, is often driven by the need to preserve unity and avoid internal divisions. Breaking ranks with a popular figure in a place like Agege, where Obasa’s influence runs deep, could easily prove to be a self-destructive move for any party.
The 2023 elections showed that Lagos was walking a shaky precipice. The margin of victory was not as wide as expected, and internal discord could have jeopardized the APC’s standing in Lagos. That’s why the question of whether Obasa should return as Speaker is not just about leadership but about the political survival of the party in the state. It’s a question of balance, strategy, and long-term stability.
In conclusion, the events surrounding Obasa’s impeachment are not just a reflection of internal politics in Lagos but also an important case study in political strategy and sustainability within the framework of Nigerian politics. It is vital that leaders within the Lagos State House of Assembly understand the significance of grassroots support and the need for amicable resolutions. Politics should not be about division, but about uniting constituencies to achieve shared goals. As we await the final outcome of this situation, it is clear that no one is irrelevant in politics—every constituency, vote, and opinion holds value in shaping the future of Lagos.
By Arogundade Toheeb, Sustainability Development Consultant.
